Quantum Computing Advances We Need to See Over the Coming 12 to 18 to 24 Months to Stay on Track

In a nutshell

On track for what?

Preparing for The ENIAC Moment

Will we have achieved The ENIAC Moment in two years?

How close might we be to achieving The ENIAC Moment in two years?

I suspect that we’ll see The ENIAC Moment in roughly three years

To be clear, The ENIAC Moment is neither assured nor required nor assumed in two years

The ENIAC Moment is a demonstration, not necessarily ready for production deployment

Hardware advances needed

Yes, we need more qubits, but…

How many qubits do we need? 160 to 256 for some, 64 to 80 for most, 48 as a minimum

Trapped-ion quantum computers need more qubits

Neutral-atom quantum computers need to be delivered

Algorithms need to be automatically scalable

Rich set of sample quantum algorithms

The seven main quantum application categories

Rich set of sample quantum applications

Take the guesswork out of modeling shot count (circuit repetitions)

Higher standards for documenting algorithms

Near-perfect qubits are required

Perfect logical qubits and quantum error correction (QEC) are not needed in this timeframe

Architectural improvements needed to enhance transmon qubit connectivity

Transmon qubit proponents need to announce a connectivity strategy and roadmap

RIP: Ode to SWAP networks

Unclear how much improvement in coherence time is needed in this time period

Quantum advantage requires dramatic improvement

Still in pre-commercialization

Not yet time for commercialization

Even in two years we may still be deep in pre-commercialization

Avoid premature commercialization

Ongoing research

Need a replacement for Quantum Volume for higher qubit counts

Need application category-specific benchmarks

We need some real application using 100 or even 80 qubits

Some potential for algorithms up to 160 qubits

We’re still in stage 0 of the path to commercialization and widespread adoption of quantum computing

A critical mass of these advances is needed

Which advance is the most important, critical, and urgent — the top priority?

My Christmas and New Year wish list

Is a Quantum Winter likely in two years? No, but…

Critical technical gating factors which could presage a Quantum Winter in two years

A roadmap for the next two years?

Where might we be in one year?

RIP: Ode to NISQ

On track to… end of the NISQ era and the advent of the Post-NISQ era

RIP: Noisy qubits

Details for other advances

And what advances are needed beyond two years?

My original proposal for this topic

Summary and conclusions



Freelance Consultant

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