Three Stages of Adoption for Quantum Computing: The ENIAC Moment, Configurable Packaged Quantum Solutions, and The FORTRAN Moment

In a nutshell

The essential goal: Gain as widespread adoption of quantum computing as possible in the shortest amount of time

Focus on production-scale practical real-world quantum applications

Comparing to adoption of classical computing

The three stages of adoption for quantum computing

Stage 1, Stage 2, and Stage 3

Reliance on super-elite technical professionals

Gradual declining of reliance on super-elite technical professionals

Stage 1 — The ENIAC Moment

Stage 2 — Configurable packaged quantum solutions

Stage 3 — The FORTRAN Moment

The FORTRAN Moment will herald widespread full-custom quantum algorithms and applications

Technical gating factors for each stage of adoption

Technical gating factors for Stage 1 (The ENIAC Moment)

Need for near-perfect qubits

Need for automatically scalable algorithms

Technical gating factors for Stage 2 (Configurable packaged quantum solutions)

Technical gating factors for Stage 3 (The FORTRAN Moment)

Even in stage 3, not all quantum applications will need quantum error correction

Stages of quantum advantage

Expectations after the advent of stage 1

Expectations after the advent of stage 2

Expectations after the advent of stage 3

What stage are we at now?

Stage 0 — where we are today — pre-commercialization

Need to avoid premature commercialization

Where are all of the 40-qubit algorithms?

Timing of the stages

Lessons from the evolution of classical computing

Beyond stage 3 — stage 4, stage 5, stage 6

And even beyond stage 6 — to stage 10 and beyond

Need for ongoing research

What is quantum expertise?

What is the potential for quantum-inspired computing?

Model for stages of adoption for a new technology

Original proposed topic

Summary and conclusions



Freelance Consultant

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