The Stock Market for Quantum Computing

As part of composing My Quantum Computing Swan Song and Is Quantum Computing Dead?, I pondered this question:

• But what about the stock market for quantum computing?

For easier reference, here is my response to this essential question, as well as a list of the stocks related to quantum computing…

Disclaimer

But first, if you’re looking for recommendations and hot stock tips, don’t bother reading any further. You won’t find that here. I’m not in that business. No hype. No wild, exaggerated promises. Just simple facts. You are responsible for your own due diligence.

U.S. companies and stocks only

The stocks listed in this informal paper are either strictly U.S. companies, or maybe foreign companies that chose to list their stock in the U.S., or foreign companies who offer an ADR in the U.S. so that their stock trades in the U.S. as if they were a U.S. company or a U.S.-listed stock.

At present, there are virtually no foreign quantum-related companies with stock publicly-available and traded in the U.S. One exception is D-Wave, which is a Canadian company, but chose to list their stock in the U.S., going public as a SPAC merger.

Okay, now we’ll get right to it…

But what about the stock market for quantum computing?

Hah! We can talk all we want about facts, merit, and value, but the stock market is only partially driven by such factors, called fundamentals.

A huge fraction of the stock market, especially for any new technology is driven by what Wall Street calls animal spirits. Noted economist John Maynard Keynes coined that term. Much — or even most — of Wall Street is driven by emotion, passion, popularity, sentiment, and all manner of psychological factors. Hopes, dreams, aspirations, optimism, and yes, even the much dreaded hype run wild on Wall Street. Sometimes they call it irrational exuberance.

As famed investor Warren Buffett has put it “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” Meaning that in the short run popularity, sentiment, and all those psychological factors run the market, but in the longer run fundamentals kick in.

That’s in bull markets. But there are also bear markets, where the psychology and animal spirits run in the exact opposite direction.

There are many schools of thought on Wall Street, a spectrum from pure irrational exuberance on one end, a casino, if you will, to strict fundamentals on the other end, with hybrid methodologies along the way.

New and young companies can indeed thrive in the stock market for some time based on promises and claims of potential, but somewhere down the line investors will want to see real, fundamental results, with substantial revenue, substantial profits, clear business value for customers, a healthy growth rate, and consistency of performance.

For now, Wall Street is rather bullish (favorable) on quantum computing and quantum technologies in general. That may not last forever, or may wax and wane like the weather, but for now there is a definite bullish attitude towards the potential or presumed potential for quantum computing.

So, while I have serious concerns about the technical potential, the merit, and the actual value of quantum computing for production-scale practical applications for real-world problems, I’m also betting that Wall Street will remain enthusiastic for this new technology for at least a couple more years.

I wouldn’t bet the farm on it, but there is money to be made in the relatively near term.

In fact, I have stock positions in every company which is a player in the market for quantum computing, and I’ve had these positions for several years now. I bought IonQ stock as a SPAC back in 2021.

How these companies will fare on Wall Street in the coming years is a real crap shoot, but for now I’m enjoying the ride.

That said, don’t be surprised if two, three, five, seven, or ten years from now it all comes tumbling down as the old dot-com bubble did in 2000. Just as with dot-com, there may be an afterlife, a Web 2.0, and some of the current players may survive, but a whole new wave of players for a Quantum Computing 2.0 may in fact rule the roost in that new world.

And if you think you can predict what the future will be for either quantum computing technology or quantum computing stocks, please be very mindful of the prescient words of famed economist and equally-famed investor and trader, John Maynard Keynes:

• Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

The only guarantee is that it will be a wild ride. So, enjoy… for now!

Stocks related to quantum computing

First, here are the stocks of traditional tech companies which are significantly involved in quantum computing, but not exclusively focused on quantum computing:

1. Amazon (AMZN)
2. Fujitsu (FJTSY)
3. Google/Alphabet (GOOG)
4. Honeywell (HON) — majority owner of Quantinuum
5. IBM (IBM)
6. Intel (INTC)
7. Microsoft (MSFT)
8. Nokia (NOK) — owns Bell Labs, which is working on photonic and topological qubits
9. NVIDIA (NVDA)

Some other traditional tech companies with a minor focus on quantum computing or tools and technologies that enable quantum computing:

1. Keysight Technologies (KEYS)

Finally, here are the new companies focused exclusively on quantum computing or other aspects of quantum technologies:

1. Arqit Quantum (ARQQ)
2. D-Wave Quantum (QBTS)
3. Horizon Quantum — coming soon as a SPAC merger with DMY Squared Technology Group (DMYY)
4. Infleqtion — coming soon as a SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp X (CCCX); also a quantum sensing play
5. IonQ (IONQ)
6. Quantum Computing (QUBT)
7. Rigetti Computing (RGTI)
8. Spectral Capital (FCCN) — various quantum-related activities
9. Xanadu Quantum Technologies — coming soon as a SPAC merger with Crane Harbor Acquisition Corp. (CHAC)
10. Zapata Quantum (ZPTA) — focusing on tools for development of applications; struggling to come back from the dead; most of us can’t buy it since it has an Expert Market designation since they are not current with their SEC filings

You can buy those three SPACs today and the stock will automatically turn into the quantum computing companies with their new stock ticker symbols when the mergers close.

Some exchange-traded funds (ETFs) which offer limited exposure to some of these quantum computing companies as well as some of the traditional tech companies:

1. Defiance Quantum ETF (QTUM)
2. AI Semiconductor & Quantum ETF (CHPX)

What about quantum-resistant cryptography, quantum-safe cryptography, and post-quantum cryptography (PQC)?

I have a separate list for companies with more of a narrow focus on quantum-resistant cryptography, quantum-safe cryptography, and post-quantum cryptography (PQC) rather than quantum computing proper:

1. SEALSQ (LAES)
2. BTQ Technologies (BTQ) — applying quantum-safe cryptography to Bitcoin

What about quantum sensing?

Still early, with most players privately held, but public players include:

1. Infleqtion (CCCX) — coming soon
2. IonQ (IONQ)
3. Leidos Holdings (LDOS) — defense and national security oriented

What about quantum networking?

Still early, with most players privately held, but public players include:

1. Cisco (CSCO)
2. IonQ (IONQ)

Not quantum computing

One more thing, the following are not quantum computing company stocks even though they have “quantum” in their names:

1. Quantum Corp (QMCO) — disk drive and storage management
2. Quantum-Si Inc (QSI) — life sciences and protein analysis
3. Quantumscape Corp (QS) — battery technology

Although, just because they are not related to quantum computing doesn’t mean they might not be great investments in what they do. Plus, ignorant and fraudulent hypesters might tout them as quantum computing plays despite the facts.

Future quantum computing vendors

I’ve started another list, of traditional tech companies which could dive deep into quantum once it becomes real and practical enough and begins to appeal to a wider market, offering either hardware or application services:

1. Accenture (ACN) — applications and consulting
2. Dell Technologies (DELL) — license the hardware technology from others, manufacture systems, run quantum data centers, offer application services
3. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) — same boat as Dell
4. Oracle (ORCL) — focus on enterprise applications, but could get into hardware and systems as well, the same boat as Dell and Hewlett Packard

As noted earlier, I have positions and do some trading of all of these companies on all of these lists.

Disclosure

I do not offer recommendations as to buying, selling, or trading of these companies, or any companies, for that matter.

Tech stocks in general exhibit significant volatility and wild price swings. Quantum computing stocks can be expected to experience even much greater volatility. They are not for the squeamish or faint of heart.

Do you think the stock market is being irrational (whether about quantum computing in particular, tech overall, or the overall market)? Well, maybe, but pay attention to what famed economist and equally-famed investor John Maynard Keynes said about market irrationality:

• Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

And that works both ways, when the markets are exuberant or in a panic.

Food for thought. Just saying.

Hmmm… I wonder when Cathie Wood will dip her toe into the quantum computing waters with her ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK)!

For more of my writing: List of My Papers on Quantum Computing.