Speculative Preview of the IBM 433-qubit Osprey Quantum Computer

In a nutshell

References

Quantum processor vs. quantum computer

My motivation

Goals for this paper

What I include in this paper

Timing of my paper

Osprey is poised for disappointment

Osprey may offer enough improvement to not be an absolute flop, but disappointing enough to be a relative flop

IBM needs much better messaging

IBM needs to announce preliminary benchmarking results when Osprey is formally announced and made available

IBM needs to provide full technical documentation and technical specifications when Osprey is formally announced and made available

What are IBM’s intentions with Osprey?

Are there other intentions of IBM that we just don’t know about, yet?

Osprey is still an impressive engineering achievement under the hood

What value is IBM attempting to offer quantum algorithm designers and quantum application developers with Osprey?

Extrapolation from Eagle

The key technical factors for Osprey that could impact quantum algorithms and quantum applications

The Big Four of the key technical factors which matter the most

General support for nontrivial quantum Fourier transform (QFT) and quantum phase estimation (QPE) is critical

Fine granularity of phase is needed to support nontrivial quantum Fourier transform (QFT) and quantum phase estimation (QPE)

What qubit count has IBM committed for Osprey?

What qubit count is likely in Osprey?

What qubit count does Osprey need to inspire confidence?

How many qubits is enough to keep people happy?

What qubit fidelity has IBM committed for Osprey?

Nines of qubit fidelity

What qubit fidelity is likely in Osprey?

What qubit fidelity does Osprey need to inspire confidence?

Does Osprey need near-perfect qubits to inspire significant excitement? Probably.

What about qubit measurement fidelity for Osprey?

Mediocre qubit measurement fidelity would be a critical flaw for Osprey

What qubit connectivity has IBM committed for Osprey?

What qubit connectivity is likely in Osprey?

What qubit connectivity does Osprey need to inspire confidence?

Will Osprey need some sort of quantum state bus to satisfy demand for greater qubit connectivity?

Is some other hardware mechanism needed to increase qubit connectivity for Osprey?

No, SWAP networks are not a viable alternative to enhanced qubit connectivity

What granularity of phase and probability amplitude has IBM committed for Osprey?

What granularity of phase and probability amplitude is likely in Osprey?

What granularity of phase and probability amplitude does Osprey need to inspire confidence?

What coherence time and circuit depth has IBM committed for Osprey?

What coherence time and circuit depth is likely in Osprey?

What coherence time and circuit depth does Osprey need to inspire confidence?

What has IBM committed to for quantum error correction (QEC) in Osprey?

What do I hope that IBM will deliver for quantum error correction (QEC) in Osprey?

Do I expect a demonstration of quantum error correction in Osprey? No, but…

Maybe a demonstration of quantum error correction in a subsequent revision to Osprey? Possibly, but…

Is the credibility of quantum error correction at stake with Osprey?

IBM technical credibility will suffer if they neither show progress with quantum error correction nor progress towards near-perfect qubits

What Quantum Volume has IBM committed for Osprey?

What Quantum Volume is likely in Osprey?

What Quantum Volume does Osprey need to inspire confidence?

Quantum Volume cannot use more than 50 qubits (and maybe only 40 or even 32 qubits)

Topology and connectivity of Osprey’s 433 qubits

Will Osprey be modular?

IBM Quantum System Two

Will the new dilution refrigerator offer any functional advantage to quantum applications?

What speed or throughput will Osprey have?

Will Osprey support Qiskit Runtime?

Is Osprey simply a bigger Eagle (more qubits)?

Concerns from Eagle which may or may not apply to Osprey as well

Competition from other qubit technologies

IBM quantum is still in research mode, not mainline commercial product engineering, yet

When might IBM transition their quantum efforts from research to commercial product development?

Unfortunately, parts of IBM are acting as if quantum was a commercial product and engaging in premature commercialization

Research orientation of Osprey reemphasizes that quantum computing is still in the pre-commercialization stage, still well short of being ready for commercialization

Still a mere laboratory curiosity

Still more appropriate for the lunatic fringe rather than mainstream application developers

Risk for Quantum Winter

What can we expect from future revisions of Osprey?

I’d much rather see an upgraded 27-qubit Falcon than a 433-qubit Osprey

My original proposal for this topic

Summary and conclusions

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Freelance Consultant

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