Risks of Premature Commercialization of Quantum Computing

In a nutshell

What is premature commercialization?


The overall model

Brief summary of pre-commercialization

Research, more research, and even more research

Premature commercialization risk

Summary of risks of premature commercialization

Overall the technology is NOT ready for production deployment

No production deployment of quantum computing during pre-commercialization

No great detail on commercialization proper here since focus here is on pre-commercialization

For more on commercialization itself

The crux of the problem, the dilemma

Premature commercialization is the problem now facing us

No need for premature Quantum Ready

Great for Fortune 500 companies to do their own research push

Excessive hype is getting the best of us — we’re drinking too much of the Kool-Aid

Current dramatic push for commercialization is a counterproductive distraction

Commercialization of current technology will NOT lead to dramatic quantum advantage

Premature for any significant quantum advantage on any consistent basis across application categories

Little if any of the current technology will be relevant in 5–10 years

Wait a few years for the software technology to mature and evolve before getting started

Variational methods are an unproductive distraction and technical dead end — focus on quantum Fourier transform (QFT) and quantum phase estimation (QPE) using simulation

Risk of backlash

Big risk of hitting a Quantum Winter in two to three years

Taming the hype may be impossible, so we need to push the reality to catch up

Boost research, prototyping, and experimentation — pre-commercialization

We need to push research much harder to try to catch up with the hype

Distinguishing pre-commercialization from commercialization

Avoid premature commercialization

Critical technical gating factors for initial stage of commercialization

Minimum viable product (MVP)

No, noisy NISQ quantum computers are not viable for commercialization

48 fully-connected near-perfect qubits as the sweet spot goal for near-term quantum computing

Critical hardware research issues

Critical algorithm and application research areas

Other critical research areas

We need to decouple hardware development and algorithm and application research, prototyping, and experimentation

Focus algorithm and application research, prototyping, and experimentation on simulation

Sure, it can be intoxicating to run your algorithm on an actual quantum computer, but what does it prove and where does it get you?

Hardware engineers should run their own functional tests, stress tests, and benchmark tests

Use simulation to enable algorithm and application research, prototyping, and experimentation to proceed at their own pace independent of the hardware

Functional enhancements and performance and capacity improvements are needed for simulation

Where are all of the 40-qubit quantum algorithms?

Scalability is essential for robust quantum algorithms

Don’t imagine that scalability of quantum algorithms and applications is free, cheap, easy, obvious, or automatic — much hard work is needed during pre-commercialization

Inadequate characterization of performance and capacity of quantum computers, algorithms, and applications

Configure simulation to match expected commercial hardware

Configure simulation to match expected improvements — or shortfalls — of the hardware

Research will continue even as commercialization commences

Exception: Commercial viability of capabilities which support pre-commercialization

Early commercial opportunities for selling tools and services to enable and facilitate research, prototyping, and experimentation

Exception: Random number-based applications are actually commercially viable today

Even for exceptions for commercialization during pre-commercialization, be especially wary

Keep cost and service level agreements in mind even for the rare exceptions during pre-commercialization

Beware of any capabilities available during pre-commercialization which might seem as if they are likely to apply to commercialization as well

Products which enable quantum computing vs. products which are enabled by quantum computing

Potential for commercial viability of quantum-enabling products during pre-commercialization

Preliminary quantum-enabled products during pre-commercialization

Risk of changes to support software and tools during pre-commercialization — beware of premature commercialization

Risk of business development during pre-commercialization — beware of premature commercialization

Quantum computing is still in the realm of the lunatic fringe

Quantum Ready — It’s never too early for The Lunatic Fringe

Quantum Aware is fine, but be careful about Quantum Ready

Expect radical change — continually update vision of what quantum computing will look like

Quantum computing is still a mere laboratory curiosity, not ready for production deployment

Quantum computing is still more suited for elite technical teams than average, normal technical teams

Pre-commercialization will be the Wild West of quantum computing — accept that or stay out until true commercialization

Pre-commercialization is about constant change while commercialization is about stability and carefully controlled and compatible evolution

Customers and users prefer carefully designed products, not cobbled prototypes

Customers and users will seek the stability of methodical commercialization, not the chaos of pre-commercialization

Quantum ecosystem

Early, preliminary development of quantum ecosystem during pre-commercialization

When might the initial commercialization stage, C1.0, be available?

IBM 127-qubit Eagle announcement is proof that we’re still in pre-commercialization — and at risk of premature commercialization

Must assure that there are no great unanswered questions hanging over the heads of the commercialization teams

My apologies — There’s so much more! See my three papers

Grand finale — So what do we do now??

My original proposal for this topic

Summary and conclusions



Freelance Consultant

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