Fake Predictions for Quantum Computing

Enough with all of the hype for all of the many miracles quantum computing will supposedly accomplish, eventually. What are some things that people are sure that quantum computers will never be able to do? We’ve all seen the memes floating around the Internet of famously-wrong predictions about technology, like a world market for only five computers, that nobody would ever want a computer in their home, and that 640K of memory ought to be enough for anybody, so I’m proposing some additions tailored to quantum computing, including rewording some of those existing memes to address them specifically to quantum computing. In fact, I’ve already read articles where real people have already made some of these exact types of predictions about what they claim quantum computing can’t be.

So, here we go…

  1. There is a world market for only 50 quantum computers.
  2. There is no reason anyone would want a quantum computer in their home.
  3. We’ll never see the quantum computer equivalent of the Apple II home computer.
  4. Apple will never come out with a quantum computer.
  5. 640 qubits ought to be enough for anybody.
  6. Who the hell wants to hear a quantum computer talk, play music, view images and videos, or engage in a video chat?
  7. Every useful quantum computing feature that can be invented has already been invented.
  8. Quantum computers will never run at room temperature.
  9. There is no reason that any small business would want a quantum computer.
  10. There is no reason that any small or medium size enterprise would want a quantum computer.
  11. Quantum computers will never be used as desktop computers.
  12. Quantum computers will never be used as laptop computers.
  13. Quantum computers will never be used in handheld devices (tablets, phones, wearable computers.)
  14. The idea of a quantum computer in your pocket is a pipe dream.
  15. Your car (truck, bus, train, plane) will never contain a quantum computer.
  16. Quantum computers will never completely replace classical computers.
  17. Quantum computers will never cost less than $1 million.
  18. Quantum computers can do anything classical computers can do.
  19. Quantum computers will never be able to do everything that classical computers can do.
  20. Quantum computers won’t be practical for at least another decade. [Define practical!]
  21. Quantum computers will be practical within the next decade. [Define practical!]
  22. “Quantum computers will never fully replace “classical” ones like the device you’re reading this article on. They won’t run web browsers, help with your taxes, or stream the latest video from Netflix.” Literal quote from an article dated July 18, 2019. Really. “Never.” Okay, if you say so!

My personal expectation is that all of those predictions will be proven false, eventually, even if not in the very near future.

BTW, what ever happened to the old-fashioned, time-honored American tradition of “Never say never”?

To be continued. I’ll try to keep this list up to date.

Written by

Freelance Consultant

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